Playoff analysis, predictions from Mike Celizic
Seattle at Green Bay
Time: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Players to watch
Seattle
Otto Greule Jr / Getty Images
Seattle receiver D.J. Hackett.
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The Seahawks beat the Redskins big — 35-14 — in the wild-card round, but Washington beat them in almost every offensive category — yards, passing yards, time of possession, first downs. But Seattle got plays when they needed them, particularly from a smothering defense led by linebackers Leroy Hill, Lofa Tatupu and Julian Peterson, who were the stars of the game. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck threw two interceptions, but didn’t make the critical mistake; he was also efficient, hitting 20-of-32 attempts. Running back Shaun Alexander had moments when he ran hard, but he’s got to step it up two or three notches against Green Bay. Watch return man Nate Burleson, who turned the field around with his punt returns and punter Ryan Plackemeier, who four times pinned Washington inside their own 20.
Packers
This one’s all about the old man and the football, quarterback Brett Favre, gunning for one more glorious run through the postseason. He was the second most prolific passer behind Tom Brady this season, and as he goes, so goes the Pack. Ryan Grant is a breakaway threat at running back, and averaged 5.1 yards a carry once Green Bay settled on him as a starter. Donald Driver led the team with 82 receptions, but Greg Jennings is the deep threat and the big scorer with 12 TDs and an average of 17.4 yards per catch. The offensive line did an extraordinary job protecting Favre this year, giving up just 19 sacks; against the sack-happy Seahawks, they’ll be tested to their limit. The defense is led by veteran corner Charles Woodson, outside linebacker A.J. Hawk and middle linebacker Nick Barnett. Strong safety Atari Bigby led the secondary with five interceptions.
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The Seahawks win if
Seattle made life miserable for Washington quarterback Todd Collins, forcing him out of the pocket and smothering his receivers. Getting to Favre won’t be as easy, but they have to put him on his back. Favre can also become reckless if he’s playing from behind, so it’s vital for the Seahawks to carry a lead into the second half — preferably a two-touchdown lead. If Hasselbeck can get through the day with no turnovers and the pass rush can punish Favre, they could win.
The Packers win if
Seattle at Green Bay
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX
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No sacks almost certainly equals victory. Green Bay knows that, and that’s going to be their goal — to keep Favre’s uniform clean. If they give him time, no secondary alive can stop him and the Packers will win.
The Seahawks lose if
They got past the Redskins with a minimal rushing attack, and Washington easily won the time-of-possession battle in the wild-card round. That can’t happen again, because Green Bay can finish the drives that Washington couldn’t. If Alexander is ineffective, it will be more pressure on the passing game than Hasselbeck can stand and Seattle will go home.
The Packers lose if
Rebecca Cook / Reuters
Packers quarterback Brett Favre.
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It gets back to pass protection. If Favre gets sacked three or four times and gets pressured frequently, it will mean the offensive line has lost the battle. If they also give up a big play on special teams, they’ll be toast.
Prediction
Favre is the big storyline. The sidebar is coach Mike Holmgren facing his old team, a team he took to its last Super Bowl win. Holmgren has done well in the regular season, but outside of a trip to the Super Bowl two years ago, his postseasons have not gone well in Seattle. He’s up against a better team here, one with a charismatic quarterback having one of his best-ever seasons. The game’s in Green Bay, in weather the Seahawks aren’t used to. They were great against the Redskins, but Favre isn’t going to go as meekly as Collins. The Packers should win this one, blowing it open in the second half. Packers 37, Seahawks 17.