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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
With both sides of the House and the President in agreement that the country needs a boost do you think the country is headed for recession. They are talking about it over here and blame it all on the sub prime loan fiasco.

I was also surprised to hear that your banks are selling shares to Middle East Countries/India/China and Tiawan(sp). They are doing this to keep their heads above water. I bet you would be upset if China took over some of your banks.
 

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Deja Vu Sir John. We went thru this a coupla decades or so ago when Japan was the hi roller. They were buying banks and golf courses like an oil rich Beverly Hill billy.
 

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The communist Chinese govt. ALREADY made an offer to buy an interest in Citicorp... one of our top 5 financials... to the tune of 30 billion dollars I believe?

Yeah, I think recession is looming... if it isn't here already. The Dow, NASDAQ and the S&P have taken major hits the last week or so. Housing sales are in the tank (which may explain why Ff get's so grumpy sometimes :eek: ) and Merill Lynch announced it's biggest loss in company history (something like 87 years?)

Fed chairman Bernanke has asked the president for some short-term economic stimulus measures and I believe they are going to drop the Prime rate another 1/2 point at the end of the month?

I don't think the whole thing stems from the sub-prime mortgage fiasco though. I think we are finally realizing what it ACTUALLY means to be part of the "Global Economy."

Even though these things tend to be cyclical... I blame supply-side economics and Global free-trade mostly myself. Ohhh and a special thanks to neocon economic 'guru' Milton Friedman. Tdown:
 

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I blame over taxation, over regulation, subsidies, and intrusion into the free market. Big government has been propping up and bailing out failing sectors of our economy for too long. New home construction has been a driving force of our economy for 10 years now, but the huge bubble from the past 2-3 years has burst and cutting interest rates isn't going to bring it back.
If we continue to drop interest rates and print money as fast as we can, we are in for some serious trouble.
I knew I should have bought some gold when I had the chance.
 

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And then of course the media running around like Chicken Little screaming Recession Recession. Hell you'd think they had an interest in selling the concept. Surely does inspire confidence in the investing ranks.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Sko it is not only the media, even your beloved leader is talking about it. Throwing money at it does not always work. From what I hear if they give handouts to some of the people they will just bank it and then you will still be in trouble. Maybe your beloved leader could sell off Alaska to the Russians.
 

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Webo, you know the housing market isn't tanking everywhere in the country. Here in this state it is holding its own but you wouldn't know that by watching the talking heads. According to those on TV in the know, the sky is falling and the end is upon us. We aren't seeing appreciation like what was seen in the previous 3-5 years but home prices are still rising 3-7% depending on what area you are in. There are some areas of the country that are hurting but some of that is also attributed to over building too. The sub prime market is getting blamed for everything that is wrong with the economy and that is kind of typical. Recessions are a fact of life and they cannot be prevented, maybe delayed a little is all. We haven't had one in 6-7 years and it is about time for another to occur.
 

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Sir John,

It is all part of the great right wing conspiracy.

The idea is to make the economy look bleak in order to panic the left wing paranoids who always see the darkest side of things and then in their confusion they will vote for Romney, the financial expert, in hope of saving their rich, intellectual butts.
 

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SJ, we can't sell Alaska as it is the last place in this country that you can catch really big fish. I think we should make Mexico take California back. Wouldn't that be something, all the illegal immigrants wake up one morning right back in Mexico without the long walk.
 

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DB, just curious how you compute that gain in housing. You are in real estate so I respect your opinion but it just seems contrary to what I’ve seen and heard. My girlfriend who is an RE agent sold 42 homes and properties in 06. In 07 she sold 13 and most of it was in the first quarter of the year. 90% of the agents in her office have left for other jobs and she relayed to me that the housing market in Puyallup in down 10-20% from peak. I see you are from the Tacoma area- are you really seeing gains?
 

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Viperman, I appraise homes in 4 counties, King, Pierce, Thurston and Kitsap. And I will on occasion travel as far as Lewis and Mason, but I predominately stay in Pierce and King. For every appraisal I perform I compute the appreciation in that area for the previous year and all the appreciation data I use is from the Multiple Listing Service's data that they post on their web site. The greater Puyallup area, since you mentioned it, which encompasses areas 79-89 (your girlfriend will recognize the area numbers) rose 3% from a median price of $276,720 at the end of 2006 to $285,000 at the end of 2007. Now in those same areas there were 3,115 home sales in 2006 and that dropped to 1,973 sales in 2007. That is a large drop but in 2006 we were still in the crazy period and you mentioned the drop from a peak number being 10 to 20%. Remember, the peak was a record time, something that hadn't happened in something like 40 to 50 years, if ever. Homes are taking longer to sell with the average days on market in those areas being reported at 113 days where a year ago it was 78 days. The Orting area increased 1% for that same time period. North Tacoma went up about 5%. University Place, where I live, increased 4%. The Green Lake area of Seattle increased 8%. Now obviously some areas have faired much better than others and typically the farther out you get from the major metro areas prices slow there first. One other thing to keep in mind: traditionally the real estate market slows down after school starts and plods along until about November where there is a modest uptick and then it dies off again through the first of the year. As we get into spring things start to pick up and reach a peak in June, July and August. Another theory that I have is that so many people bought homes and large numbers of people were able to upsize into bigger homes that there is now a natural shortage of buyers, ie, everyone that wanted a home got one and they aren't ready to move again just yet. Sounds simple but it makes sense to me. Finally it has also been widely reported in the local newspapers that even though numbers of sales have declined, prices have continued to creep up.

As for agents leaving the profession obviously I don't know everyone's reasons for doing what they do but I can say this based on my limited experience: A very large percentage of Realtors are actually part time and in the previous 5 years everyone and their brother got into selling real estate or writing mortgages. You would have been amazed at the amount of people that were contacting me to become trainee appraisers during that stretch. Like everything else we are in the middle of a cooling period/market correction, what ever you want to call it and when that happens the people that aren't really serious about real estate and that haven't established themselves in the industry move on to something else or return to their primary jobs. Your girlfriend probably knows who Grace Hutloff is. Ms. Hutloff specializes in very high end homes but I am now seeing her signs on much more modest homes, homes 3 years ago she probably wouldn't have bothered with. The big dogs adjust and the rest starve. wink:

I obviously don't know how your girlfriend or her broker is computing their figures and she is correct that sales of homes has slowed as compared to the previous 3-5 years but those 3-5 years were a special time and not normal and that gets overlooked quite often in the discussion. Tell her to hang in there, I think things will improve in the spring but they won't be what they were not long ago.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
DB I saw on our TV, yesterday that houses were being lumped together and sold as a lot in an auction. Do speculators buy these lots or are they bought by the city councils and then rented out as low cost housing. Over here Charities and City Councils are buying houses at auction and then renting them out as low cost housing. Also just how long does it take from folk agreeing a price to them moving in to a new house. Over here it usually takes six weeks but it can be done in only three weeks if they are buying a brand new house and have nothing to sell themselves.
 

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Sir John, I haven't heard about homes being lumped together and sold as a package around here but I suppose that could be happening somewhere. If I had to guess I would say that maybe down in parts of Arizona or around Las Vegas where new construction has outpaced demand but I don't know that for sure. As for the time it takes to close a transaction, typically it is about 30 days as long as there aren't any problems along the way. As for low income housing, I don't know of any local governments buying up homes to rent to low income people and I doubt that cities really would want to get into the business of being land lords.
 

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Consumers drive 70% of the economy in the US. They are tapped out with all time low savings and all time high debt. The low interest rates and the housing boom inflated prices and allowed a lot of stupid people to run up the economy with home equity spending. Billy joe and Booby sue would see a $150K gain on their home sell it and move and buy a more expensive home, pull some equity and buy an Escalade and beamer and a 50" plasma. Or they would sit on their home and take out a heloc or a fixed HE loan and buy an RV and a baot etc. Now their homes have dropped $200k in value because no one wants to buy them and they sit on a 25 year payment plan for a depreciated asset and little to no home equity. They were pigs drunk at the trough and now they are staggering arround looking for a bail out.
 

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Sir John,the acquisition of Alaska from the Russians was a master stroke. The much maligned Seward, Seward's follie, did the country a huge service in buying that bit of real estate. If that hadn't happened many Canadians and perhaps some of the lower 48 would probably be speaking Russian.
Can you imagine the media flak he would get now days for such a brazen bit of Colonialism?

By the way I hear there is a buyer for the Malvenas.
 

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Which Island? I thought the Malvenas were several.
Why does assuming the alias of Otto Skorzeny surprise you? He was much less a criminal than the Jabba of Star Wars.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
He was a rabid fascist and also anti Semitic, a friend of Arafat who he trained. Is this really the name you want to be associated with, your standing will go down with a lot of folk on the site. Even some Reps do not like being associated with Fascists. Are you know claiming that you are a closet Fascist. Not forgetting that he was responible for the deaths of American troops in WW11, but there again you seem to have glossed over this part. Typical Rightie, gloss over the bad parts and just stand up and sing Zing H... You fill in the dots.

All right I forgot to put an S on the Island.
 

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sir john said:
He was a rabid fascist and also anti Semitic,
So are all those detainees you're so eager to see set free from Club Gitmo. light:

So by inference if one wanted to jump to conclusions one could surmise that you want to see Islamo-facsism and anti-semitism flourish. :(
 
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