Joined
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218 Posts
To: Dave Croonquist
Sent: Wednesday, January 09, 2008 7:27 PM
Subject: FW: salmon in 2008
Ward Norden’s prognostications for the 2008
salmon fishery…..
2008
SALMON RETURNS Early every winter
for the last 24 years, I have published for my fishing equipment business
customers a projection of what the salmon returns would be the following summer.
The reason I began this annual ritual in the early 1980’s is that we were all
getting tired of the so-called fisheries experts in government being perpetually
off in their predictions of salmon returns by 40, 50 and even 70%. To
listen to these so-called government experts was a ticket to go bankrupt in your
fishing equipment business. A more professional, objective look was needed
to help the businesses dependent on early purchases to support their summer
retail activities. At that time I was freshly out of
the University of Washington College of Fisheries and before that had a degree
in marine invertebrates from Oregon State. I had just started my own
wholesale fishing equipment business. I was already aware that fisheries
agencies of both Washington and Oregon were highly
corrupted by special interests and politics that colored their
predictions. I knew I could do a better, more professional job for my
customers because I was not required to only use politically-correct, corrupt
data. In the years since that time I
have used ocean temperatures, currents, and plankton to accurately project
salmon returns. I concluded that habitat and dams are far less
relevant than the politically-correct thought police of the environmental
movement would like you to believe. In recent years, my projection
of chinook returns to the Columbia River have been as close as 2% of the actual,
while the same government agencies using politically-correct data remain
regularly off by more than 40%. The good news
for 2008 is that we are finally getting beyond the effects of the catastrophic
ocean conditions of early summer 2004. Those conditions virtually
collapsed whole year classes of certain runs of salmon such as the coho
run of 2005 and the spring chinook run of 2007. We will still see
the last direct effect of 2004 on spring and fall chinook returns to several
coastal rivers of both Washington and
Oregon,
however. This year will be much more
interesting than usual. Some agencies have already been coming out
with projections for coastal coho and chinook that make no sense at all given
conditions out in the Pacific Ocean at critical
times of plankton growth in 2005 and 2006. In the case of Columbia River spring chinook, I hope the so-called
experts are right for a change and I am
wrong. Below are my
projections for salmon returns to rivers of Washington and Oregon in 2008:COLUMBIA RIVER SPRING
CHINOOK - The first important salmon run of the year to the Pacific Northwest is
the Columbia River springer run. This run
begins to trickle in beginning in mid-February with a peak, depending on
different components of the run, around
mid-May. Last year was a
disastrous year for this huge run with a return of only 86,000 due to
catastrophic ocean conditions that occurred for four months in 2004.
In 2008 there will be a great improvement in this run, but there will still be a
component almost missing due to events in 2004. My projection is an
increase of about 30% to about 120,000 due to good ocean conditions in
2005. Government “experts� are calling for a return of 269,000
spring chinook to the upper Columbia which I think is wildly
unrealistic. Normally, either projection
would mean improved fishing for sports anglers, but I am concerned that
government fisheries managers will allow a very aggressive early gillnet
fishery. If my projection is right, gillnetters will take the lions share
of the run forcing an early closure to sports fishing, leading to disaster for
local economies. Poor counts over the dams will be blamed on dams, global
warming, and sportsmen. If my cynicism is correct, only upriver
tribal fish managers have the political clout to avert a
disaster. The real record spring chinook
runs will return in 2009 and 2010, and they will be like runs of a century ago
long before dams. These runs may approach 500,000
fish. COASTAL FALL CHINOOK - Coastal fall chinook and Columbia River fall chinook with a couple exceptions
follow the same pattern of returns. The effects of the catastrophic
summer of 2004 are still being felt with fall chinook because a large portion of
this run stays at sea two to three years or more longer than spring
chinook. This year there will be very few of the chinook that went to sea
in 2004, but plenty that went to sea in 2005. If you go to the coast
to fish this summer, don't expect to catch very many chinook in the 25 to
35-pound class. The majority of the chinook caught will be from the
2005 outmigration that will weigh from 14 to 24 pounds. This is the
“bow wave� that precedes all-time record coastal chinook returns in 2009, 2010,
and 2011. Good times are ahead for those with
patience. Overall, the fall
chinook return total numbers will be about average in 2008 with the large number
of younger fish balancing out the almost missing year
class. To the fish
ecologist, this is the strategy nature has devised for the survival of the
chinook species. Unlike coho that can wander to other rivers or
pinks that return in huge numbers to offset natural disasters, chinook from the
same redd may come back in multiple years so that a local temporary disaster
cannot wipe out the whole run. This is one of nature's
wonders.COASTAL COHO - The effect of 2004 will be indirectly felt on
coastal rivers from the Hoh
River to Northern
California. This is the return year of the offspring of the
coho impacted by the 2004 disaster. While conditions when these
young coho went to sea in spring last year were quite good, the outmigration of
naturally-produced coho was quite low in most rivers. Hatchery
coho (finclipped) returns next fall will be good coastwide, but the numbers of
coho with adipose fins will be
low. In contrast to my optimistic
view, the government “experts� are predicting disastrously low returns for coho
in places like the Columbia
River. There may be a
political reason for this low run prediction by the fish
bureaucracy. If fisheries were rationally managed, sportfishers
would have a good season because they can fish selectively, harvesting only
finclipped coho with minimal 3% mortality on released, naturally-produced
coho. Only gillnetters who realistically must kill everything that swims
would have to be curtailed. Historically, however, it has been the
philosophy of Washington bureaucrats that if the gillnetters
can't kill everything that swims, nobody
fishes. The run forecast by the
“experts� would seem to set up a rationale to shut down sport fisheries if the
gillnetters can't fish.PUGET SOUND/OLYMPIC PENINSULA COHO - Part of the
good news for Washington State anglers is that coho which entered saltwater in
nutrient rich Puget Sound were never seriously
affected by the offshore conditions of 2004. The other part of the good
news is that offshore growing conditions for the coho that leave our sheltered
waters were nothing short of outstanding. The food chain conditions that
created the new world record humpy caught in the Stillaguamish River three months ago were also perfect
for growing young coho. 2008
should be an excellent year for coho returning from offshore to Puget Sound through the Straits of Juan de Fuca.
Resident Puget Sound coho fishing should be good as well with numbers of those
fish equal to or better than last
year. Depending on quotas, I am
expecting outstanding coho seasons in Neah Bay and La Push in August. Fishing
for resident coho in August near Everett, and for
the big oceangoing (hook nose) coho in September throughout the Seattle area should be
excellent as well. We can all just hope coho return early
enough that they are still in the mood to
bite. As always the timing of coho
runs from offshore and the size of the fish is dependent on the ocean conditions
during the summer. A summer El Nino will delay the return and stunt
the fish, but a colder ocean grows the fish larger for a regular return
time. As of this writing I am even more optimistic than usual for good
growing conditions next summer due to the continuation of global cooling trends
that began in 2001.PUGET SOUND CHINOOK - Because Puget Sound chinook
spend an extra year in the nutrient-rich inland waters of Western Washington
plus have been engineered by our fisheries managers over the last century to
return a year earlier (and smaller) than their coastal relatives, we have long
since passed any effects of 2004. Puget
Sound's chinook fishery should actually be a little better in 2008
than in 2007 if the same regulations are in place and possibly become less
restrictive for finclipped
chinook. As of this writing,
there are a lot of rumors that the fish bureaucracy's dislike for recreational
fisheries will color its decisions. They may try to ignore increasing
numbers of finclipped chinook and proven low-hooking mortality statistics on
released chinook. For the
above reason, I can only say there is a potential for a very good year of
chinook fishing in Puget Sound. It
is all about politics, not biology.PUGET SOUND PINK (HUMPY) SALMON
- Humpies returning on even-numbered years are Puget
Sound's native humpies. Odd-year returning Puget Sound humpies are nonnative. Even-year
humpy runs have always been much smaller in number than odd-year runs.
Over the last thirty years I have often called our even-year humpies the
original “hard luck story�. It has seemed that every time this run starts
to increase in size comparable to their nonnative odd-year cousins, something
awful happens like an El Nino causing mass starvation or floods that ruin
spawning beds. 2008 will be no
different. This run will be smaller due to floods in 2006 in the Snohomish and
Skagit
River systems, but not as
small as one might expect. Ocean conditions last summer were excellent for
the young survivors of the floods and it would appear at this writing that
conditions will be good for their maturity. Instead of the 80,000
one would expect to return to the Snohomish River, there may be as many as 160,000
which is still barely 1/5 of last year's
run. Fishing for humpies will be limited
in 2008 in both fresh and saltwater, but a one humpy limit in addition to coho
may happen.LAKE WASHINGTON SOCKEYE - 2008 should be a good year for
returns of sockeye to Lake Washington with
ocean conditions what they have been for the last couple years.
Unfortunately, fish counting and fisheries in the lake are dominated by special
interest politics, political expediency, and an anti-recreation harassment
agenda in enforcement agencies. This is also an election year which
may bias counts. None of this has anything to do with the actual numbers
of these salmon returning to the big
lake. It is no secret that
it is my opinion that, since these salmon are not native to Lake Washington and may even compete with native species,
there should be a season every year in the lake and return numbers are
irrelevant especially since there is now a hatchery for sockeye.Tight
Lines to All - Ward
Norden **************Start the year off
right. Easy ways to stay in
shape.http://body.aol.com/fitness/winter-exer ... 0000002489
Sent: Wednesday, January 09, 2008 7:27 PM
Subject: FW: salmon in 2008
Ward Norden’s prognostications for the 2008
salmon fishery…..
2008
SALMON RETURNS Early every winter
for the last 24 years, I have published for my fishing equipment business
customers a projection of what the salmon returns would be the following summer.
The reason I began this annual ritual in the early 1980’s is that we were all
getting tired of the so-called fisheries experts in government being perpetually
off in their predictions of salmon returns by 40, 50 and even 70%. To
listen to these so-called government experts was a ticket to go bankrupt in your
fishing equipment business. A more professional, objective look was needed
to help the businesses dependent on early purchases to support their summer
retail activities. At that time I was freshly out of
the University of Washington College of Fisheries and before that had a degree
in marine invertebrates from Oregon State. I had just started my own
wholesale fishing equipment business. I was already aware that fisheries
agencies of both Washington and Oregon were highly
corrupted by special interests and politics that colored their
predictions. I knew I could do a better, more professional job for my
customers because I was not required to only use politically-correct, corrupt
data. In the years since that time I
have used ocean temperatures, currents, and plankton to accurately project
salmon returns. I concluded that habitat and dams are far less
relevant than the politically-correct thought police of the environmental
movement would like you to believe. In recent years, my projection
of chinook returns to the Columbia River have been as close as 2% of the actual,
while the same government agencies using politically-correct data remain
regularly off by more than 40%. The good news
for 2008 is that we are finally getting beyond the effects of the catastrophic
ocean conditions of early summer 2004. Those conditions virtually
collapsed whole year classes of certain runs of salmon such as the coho
run of 2005 and the spring chinook run of 2007. We will still see
the last direct effect of 2004 on spring and fall chinook returns to several
coastal rivers of both Washington and
Oregon,
however. This year will be much more
interesting than usual. Some agencies have already been coming out
with projections for coastal coho and chinook that make no sense at all given
conditions out in the Pacific Ocean at critical
times of plankton growth in 2005 and 2006. In the case of Columbia River spring chinook, I hope the so-called
experts are right for a change and I am
wrong. Below are my
projections for salmon returns to rivers of Washington and Oregon in 2008:COLUMBIA RIVER SPRING
CHINOOK - The first important salmon run of the year to the Pacific Northwest is
the Columbia River springer run. This run
begins to trickle in beginning in mid-February with a peak, depending on
different components of the run, around
mid-May. Last year was a
disastrous year for this huge run with a return of only 86,000 due to
catastrophic ocean conditions that occurred for four months in 2004.
In 2008 there will be a great improvement in this run, but there will still be a
component almost missing due to events in 2004. My projection is an
increase of about 30% to about 120,000 due to good ocean conditions in
2005. Government “experts� are calling for a return of 269,000
spring chinook to the upper Columbia which I think is wildly
unrealistic. Normally, either projection
would mean improved fishing for sports anglers, but I am concerned that
government fisheries managers will allow a very aggressive early gillnet
fishery. If my projection is right, gillnetters will take the lions share
of the run forcing an early closure to sports fishing, leading to disaster for
local economies. Poor counts over the dams will be blamed on dams, global
warming, and sportsmen. If my cynicism is correct, only upriver
tribal fish managers have the political clout to avert a
disaster. The real record spring chinook
runs will return in 2009 and 2010, and they will be like runs of a century ago
long before dams. These runs may approach 500,000
fish. COASTAL FALL CHINOOK - Coastal fall chinook and Columbia River fall chinook with a couple exceptions
follow the same pattern of returns. The effects of the catastrophic
summer of 2004 are still being felt with fall chinook because a large portion of
this run stays at sea two to three years or more longer than spring
chinook. This year there will be very few of the chinook that went to sea
in 2004, but plenty that went to sea in 2005. If you go to the coast
to fish this summer, don't expect to catch very many chinook in the 25 to
35-pound class. The majority of the chinook caught will be from the
2005 outmigration that will weigh from 14 to 24 pounds. This is the
“bow wave� that precedes all-time record coastal chinook returns in 2009, 2010,
and 2011. Good times are ahead for those with
patience. Overall, the fall
chinook return total numbers will be about average in 2008 with the large number
of younger fish balancing out the almost missing year
class. To the fish
ecologist, this is the strategy nature has devised for the survival of the
chinook species. Unlike coho that can wander to other rivers or
pinks that return in huge numbers to offset natural disasters, chinook from the
same redd may come back in multiple years so that a local temporary disaster
cannot wipe out the whole run. This is one of nature's
wonders.COASTAL COHO - The effect of 2004 will be indirectly felt on
coastal rivers from the Hoh
River to Northern
California. This is the return year of the offspring of the
coho impacted by the 2004 disaster. While conditions when these
young coho went to sea in spring last year were quite good, the outmigration of
naturally-produced coho was quite low in most rivers. Hatchery
coho (finclipped) returns next fall will be good coastwide, but the numbers of
coho with adipose fins will be
low. In contrast to my optimistic
view, the government “experts� are predicting disastrously low returns for coho
in places like the Columbia
River. There may be a
political reason for this low run prediction by the fish
bureaucracy. If fisheries were rationally managed, sportfishers
would have a good season because they can fish selectively, harvesting only
finclipped coho with minimal 3% mortality on released, naturally-produced
coho. Only gillnetters who realistically must kill everything that swims
would have to be curtailed. Historically, however, it has been the
philosophy of Washington bureaucrats that if the gillnetters
can't kill everything that swims, nobody
fishes. The run forecast by the
“experts� would seem to set up a rationale to shut down sport fisheries if the
gillnetters can't fish.PUGET SOUND/OLYMPIC PENINSULA COHO - Part of the
good news for Washington State anglers is that coho which entered saltwater in
nutrient rich Puget Sound were never seriously
affected by the offshore conditions of 2004. The other part of the good
news is that offshore growing conditions for the coho that leave our sheltered
waters were nothing short of outstanding. The food chain conditions that
created the new world record humpy caught in the Stillaguamish River three months ago were also perfect
for growing young coho. 2008
should be an excellent year for coho returning from offshore to Puget Sound through the Straits of Juan de Fuca.
Resident Puget Sound coho fishing should be good as well with numbers of those
fish equal to or better than last
year. Depending on quotas, I am
expecting outstanding coho seasons in Neah Bay and La Push in August. Fishing
for resident coho in August near Everett, and for
the big oceangoing (hook nose) coho in September throughout the Seattle area should be
excellent as well. We can all just hope coho return early
enough that they are still in the mood to
bite. As always the timing of coho
runs from offshore and the size of the fish is dependent on the ocean conditions
during the summer. A summer El Nino will delay the return and stunt
the fish, but a colder ocean grows the fish larger for a regular return
time. As of this writing I am even more optimistic than usual for good
growing conditions next summer due to the continuation of global cooling trends
that began in 2001.PUGET SOUND CHINOOK - Because Puget Sound chinook
spend an extra year in the nutrient-rich inland waters of Western Washington
plus have been engineered by our fisheries managers over the last century to
return a year earlier (and smaller) than their coastal relatives, we have long
since passed any effects of 2004. Puget
Sound's chinook fishery should actually be a little better in 2008
than in 2007 if the same regulations are in place and possibly become less
restrictive for finclipped
chinook. As of this writing,
there are a lot of rumors that the fish bureaucracy's dislike for recreational
fisheries will color its decisions. They may try to ignore increasing
numbers of finclipped chinook and proven low-hooking mortality statistics on
released chinook. For the
above reason, I can only say there is a potential for a very good year of
chinook fishing in Puget Sound. It
is all about politics, not biology.PUGET SOUND PINK (HUMPY) SALMON
- Humpies returning on even-numbered years are Puget
Sound's native humpies. Odd-year returning Puget Sound humpies are nonnative. Even-year
humpy runs have always been much smaller in number than odd-year runs.
Over the last thirty years I have often called our even-year humpies the
original “hard luck story�. It has seemed that every time this run starts
to increase in size comparable to their nonnative odd-year cousins, something
awful happens like an El Nino causing mass starvation or floods that ruin
spawning beds. 2008 will be no
different. This run will be smaller due to floods in 2006 in the Snohomish and
Skagit
River systems, but not as
small as one might expect. Ocean conditions last summer were excellent for
the young survivors of the floods and it would appear at this writing that
conditions will be good for their maturity. Instead of the 80,000
one would expect to return to the Snohomish River, there may be as many as 160,000
which is still barely 1/5 of last year's
run. Fishing for humpies will be limited
in 2008 in both fresh and saltwater, but a one humpy limit in addition to coho
may happen.LAKE WASHINGTON SOCKEYE - 2008 should be a good year for
returns of sockeye to Lake Washington with
ocean conditions what they have been for the last couple years.
Unfortunately, fish counting and fisheries in the lake are dominated by special
interest politics, political expediency, and an anti-recreation harassment
agenda in enforcement agencies. This is also an election year which
may bias counts. None of this has anything to do with the actual numbers
of these salmon returning to the big
lake. It is no secret that
it is my opinion that, since these salmon are not native to Lake Washington and may even compete with native species,
there should be a season every year in the lake and return numbers are
irrelevant especially since there is now a hatchery for sockeye.Tight
Lines to All - Ward
Norden **************Start the year off
right. Easy ways to stay in
shape.http://body.aol.com/fitness/winter-exer ... 0000002489
:lol:
